The Delphi method is dependent upon the judgment of knowledgeable experts. This is a particular strength because, in addition to quantitative factors, predictions that require policy decision are influenced by personal preferences and expectations. Delphi forecast methods reflect these personal factors. The respondents whose opinions are represented in this report are often in a position to influence events and, thus, make their forecasts come true. Even if subsequent events result in a change of direction of a particular forecast, this does not negate the utility of the Delphi. This report's primary objective is to present the direction of technological, materials and marketing developments within the industry, and to analyze their potential strategic importance.

Process
The Delphi method utilizes repeated rounds of questioning, including feedback of earlier-round responses, to take advantage of group input while avoiding the biasing effects possible in face-to-face panel deliberations.

In the Delphi method, panelists respond anonymously, preventing the identification of a specific opinion with any individual or company. This anonymity also provides the comfort of confidentiality, allowing panelists to freely express their opinions, and enabling previous responses to be revised in subsequent iterations after reviewing new information submitted by other panelists. All participants are encouraged to comment on their own forecasts and on the combined panel results. This procedure reduces the effects of personal agendas or biases and assists the panelists in remaining focused on the questions, issues and comments at hand.

Panel Characteristics and Composition

The very essence of a Delphi survey is the careful selection of expert respondents.  The selection of such experts for this Delphi survey is made possible by the long-standing association between The University of Michigan’s Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation and representatives of the automotive industry.  Lists of prospective experts were assembled for Technology, Marketing and Materials panels.  Members were selected on the basis of the position they occupy within the automotive industry and their knowledge of the topic being surveyed. They are deeply knowledgeable and broadly experienced in the subject matter. 

The names of the panel members and their replies are known only to our office and are maintained in the strictest confidence.  Replies are coded to ensure anonymity.  The identity of panel members is not revealed.  Upon publication of the final Delphi report, all questionnaires and lists of panelists are destroyed. 
 

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