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Sponsored by a consortium of automotive suppliers, consultants, and automotive publications, this 2001 report
provides forecasts of trends in automotive electronics to the year 2005. The report examines strategic and
organizational issues, product timing, safety and usability standards, and probable automotive products and features.
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With this forecast, OSAT expands its portfolio of Delphi forecast research products to bring strategic planners and industry analysts a study of
future trends in automotive interiors. The study identifies many of the challenges facing the auto industry participants in the next decade,
including systems integrations and globalization, and presents an opportunity for companies to benchmark their vision of the future with that of
an industry concensus. The study forecasts years 2000 and 2005.
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Delphi IX is a detailed analysis of forecasts by three separate panels of automotive industry executives, directors, managers and engineers who are experts in automotive technology, materials, or marketing. These individuals were selected because they occupy positions of responsibility within the automotive industry and have strategic insight into important industry trends. This report, published in three volumes, is ninth in a series of in-depth studies of long-range automotive trends. OSAT collects the data, from the separate panels, and analyzes, interprets and presents the results in the form of this document. Since the forecasts are those of the experts from the industry, Delphi IX is essentially the industry’s own consensus forecast. Such forecasts present and important basis for business decisions and provide valuable strategic planning information for those involved in all areas of the North American automotive industry: manufacturers; service, component and materials suppliers; government; labor; public utilities; and financial institutions. We believe these to be the most authoritative and dependable North American automotive forecasts available.
Understanding the fast-changing nature of the North American Automotive Industry requires the clearest possible vision of the competitive environment of the future. This forecast, the ninth in an ongoing series, provides an important benchmarking tool and guide to the future direction of the North American automotive industry.
What will the car of the future look like, and how much will it cost? From what materials will cars be made? How will government regulations shape the engineering and performance of new vehicles five to ten years from now? The likely answers to these and many other questions can be found in Delphi X.
How do these findings add value to strategic planning efforts? In concert with OSAT discussion and analysis, the results of this comprehensive industry survey provide insight into areas where uncertainties exist regarding future developments. For example, manufacturers may ask themselves if California-style requirements for low-emission vehicles will become the national standard. If so, industry will be challenged to find ways to achieve such emission reductions, while at the same time constraining price increases. With respect to technology, the results above provide examples of some significant changes expected by panelists; organizations that are prepared to commit the substantial financial and human resources required to be leaders in the development of engine technology will certainly have a competitive advantage.
The following discussion provides some background regarding the Delphi survey process and how results are presented, and touches on some additional ways in which the analysis can add value to existing strategic planning or research activities. Topics addressed in the three-volume publication are also identified.
Volume I: Technology ( Adobe, 22.2 MB)Volume II: Materials ( Adobe, 18.8 MB)Volume III: Marketing ( Adobe, 17.9 MB)Return to selections
Conducted under the auspices of the Automotive Research Center (ARC) and in collaboration with the
College of Engineering, this 1997 report provides a close-up of trends in modeling and simulation of
engines, vehicle dynamics, and vehicle structures. In this report, detailed analysis of projections
made by three separate panels of industry and academic experts covers four major modeling areas: engines; vehicle dynamics; vehicle structures; and integration. Topics include emission models; neural networks, artificial intelligence, and expert systems; ride quality models; durability and fatigue models; and integration models.
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Sponsored by the three U.S. departments of Commerce, Energy, and Transportation to pursue successful outcomes from the Partnership
for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), the report describes a methodology to estimate the demand for the fuels and technologies
of the PNGV, which is similar to the newly proposed FreedomCAR program.
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With this forecast, the Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation (OSAT) at
the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) expands its
portfolio of Delphi forecast research products to bring strategic planners, and industry
analysts a study of current and future trends in the automotive product design and
development process. The Product Design and Development Delphi focuses on philosophies,
practices, and tools for various phases of the product development process. The
Automotive Product Design and Development Delphi Forecast and Analysis of the North
American Automotive Industry identifies many of the challenges facing industry participants
in the next decade, including systems integration and globalization, and presents an
opportunity for companies to benchmark their vision of the future with that of an
industry consensus.
STUDY BACKGROUND
CONTENT
Survey results to questions regarding future trends in these and other areas are presented both as statistical summaries (e.g. median forecast of the future impact of math-based engineering) and written comments. Authors also place results into context by highlighting the potential strategic significance of panelists’ projections, assisting readers in formulating their own judgements.
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